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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 60

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 9-R.Dixon punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.71 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 19, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model