4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 47

New York Jets 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

What Actually Happened

(:35) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short right to 10-A.Lazard to TB 38 for 9 yards (23-T.Smith; 25-J.Parrish).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.61 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.35 EP