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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 4-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 10, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP