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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 56

New York Jets 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 0-B.Allen up the middle to NYJ 43 for -1 yards (5-H.Reddick).

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.12 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model