Value Picks — Week 8

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

NYJ @ CIN

Model: CIN 50.7% Line: CIN 65.8% 15.1-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ DEN Disagrees with the line

Model: DAL 52.8% Line: DEN 60.2% 13.0-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ PIT Disagrees with the line

Model: PIT 51.9% Line: GB 58.8% 10.7-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ ATL

Model: ATL 62.0% Line: ATL 69.8% 7.8-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ NE

Model: NE 75.6% Line: NE 69.8% 5.8-pt gap vs. the line

TB @ NO

Model: TB 68.0% Line: TB 63.1% 4.9-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ CAR

Model: BUF 65.5% Line: BUF 69.8% 4.3-pt gap vs. the line

MIN @ LAC

Model: LAC 62.5% Line: LAC 58.8% 3.7-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ KC

Model: KC 75.0% Line: KC 78.2% 3.2-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ IND

Model: IND 85.7% Line: IND 87.5% 1.8-pt gap vs. the line

SF @ HOU

Model: HOU 58.2% Line: HOU 57.3% 0.9-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ PHI

Model: PHI 69.0% Line: PHI 69.8% 0.8-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ BAL

Model: BAL 56.8% Line: BAL 57.3% 0.5-pt gap vs. the line