Value Picks — Week 10

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

CLE @ NYJ Disagrees with the line

Model: NYJ 69.9% Line: CLE 54.4% 24.3-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ HOU Disagrees with the line

Model: HOU 55.7% Line: JAX 54.4% 10.1-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ WAS

Model: DET 63.6% Line: DET 73.6% 10.0-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ MIA

Model: BUF 65.1% Line: BUF 73.6% 8.5-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ MIN

Model: BAL 69.9% Line: BAL 63.1% 6.8-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ SEA

Model: SEA 63.8% Line: SEA 69.8% 6.0-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ SF

Model: LA 59.9% Line: LA 65.8% 5.9-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ IND

Model: IND 63.2% Line: IND 68.5% 5.3-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ CAR

Model: CAR 69.9% Line: CAR 65.8% 4.1-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ CHI

Model: CHI 60.0% Line: CHI 63.1% 3.1-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ GB

Model: GB 56.1% Line: GB 54.4% 1.7-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ DEN

Model: DEN 77.0% Line: DEN 75.9% 1.1-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ TB

Model: TB 56.3% Line: TB 57.3% 1.0-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ LAC

Model: LAC 58.6% Line: LAC 58.8% 0.2-pt gap vs. the line