Value Picks — Week 10

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

CLE @ NYJ Disagrees with the line

Model: NYJ 63.9% Line: CLE 54.4% 18.3-pt gap vs. the line

JAX @ HOU Disagrees with the line

Model: HOU 61.4% Line: JAX 54.4% 15.8-pt gap vs. the line

BAL @ MIN

Model: BAL 78.1% Line: BAL 63.1% 15.0-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ WAS

Model: DET 64.7% Line: DET 73.6% 8.9-pt gap vs. the line

NYG @ CHI

Model: CHI 55.1% Line: CHI 63.1% 8.0-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ SEA

Model: SEA 64.3% Line: SEA 69.8% 5.5-pt gap vs. the line

ATL @ IND

Model: IND 64.0% Line: IND 68.5% 4.5-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ GB

Model: GB 50.1% Line: GB 54.4% 4.3-pt gap vs. the line

BUF @ MIA

Model: BUF 69.6% Line: BUF 73.6% 4.0-pt gap vs. the line

LV @ DEN

Model: DEN 79.3% Line: DEN 75.9% 3.4-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ SF

Model: LA 62.5% Line: LA 65.8% 3.3-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ LAC

Model: LAC 55.9% Line: LAC 58.8% 2.9-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ CAR

Model: CAR 66.7% Line: CAR 65.8% 0.9-pt gap vs. the line

NE @ TB

Model: TB 58.1% Line: TB 57.3% 0.8-pt gap vs. the line