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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread -8.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

BUF
65.1%
MIA
34.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.192 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.223 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA on 3 more days rest than BUF

Predicted Final Score

BUF 28
–
MIA 21
Projected margin: BUF by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

BUF

Shaq Thompson LB Out Hamstring
A.J. Epenesa DE Out Concussion
DaQuan Jones DT Questionable Calf
Taron Johnson CB Questionable Groin
Josh Palmer WR Questionable Knee
Christian Benford CB Questionable Groin

MIA

Dee Eskridge WR Out Shoulder
Rasul Douglas CB Doubtful Foot
Chop Robinson LB Doubtful Concussion
Ashtyn Davis S Questionable Quadricep
Ifeatu Melifonwu S Questionable Thumb
Julian Hill TE Questionable Ankle
Ollie Gordon II RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 13
–
MIA 30

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:53 TD MIA (4:53) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 6-M.Washington for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – MIA 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD MIA (15:00) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 17-J.Waddle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BUF-31-M.Hairston, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. BUF 0 – MIA 13
  • Q2 03:08 FG MIA (3:08) 47-R.Patterson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. BUF 0 – MIA 16
  • Q4 12:44 TD BUF (12:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 0-K.Coleman for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – MIA 16
  • Q4 06:42 TD MIA (6:42) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane up the middle for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – MIA 22
  • Q4 03:44 TD BUF (3:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 85-J.Hawes for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 12 – MIA 23
  • Q4 03:24 TD MIA (3:24) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left tackle for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – MIA 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (12:23) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to MIA 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74% p(FG) 34%

    (1:22) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 85-J.Hawes (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:52) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to MIA 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (11:44) 16-J.Bailey punts 61 yards to BUF 8, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at BUF 15 for 7 yards (22-E.Campbell).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 13 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 83%

    (3:08) 47-R.Patterson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 13 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:19) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 52 yards to MIA 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 6-M.Washington pushed ob at MIA 33 for 13 yards (54-B.Spector).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 25%

    (:51) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%

    (2:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to BUF 2, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-22-E.Campbell.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 15 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir to MIA 30 for 24 yards (25-T.Dodson) [2-B.Chubb].

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:15) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 61 yards to MIA 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-37-J.Hancock.