Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 63

Buffalo Bills 13 – Miami Dolphins 30

(1:15) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 61 yards to MIA 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-37-J.Hancock.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.34 EP
57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -1.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model