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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 13 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 16-J.Bailey punts 61 yards to BUF 8, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at BUF 15 for 7 yards (22-E.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.28 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 69, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 27, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP