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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 53

Miami Dolphins 16 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(:51) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.38 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 53, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model