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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 28

Miami Dolphins 13 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 47-R.Patterson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.11 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model