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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 41

Miami Dolphins 16 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to BUF 2, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-22-E.Campbell.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.90 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model