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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 52 yards to MIA 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 6-M.Washington pushed ob at MIA 33 for 13 yards (54-B.Spector).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.10 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 30, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model