Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 69

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 13

(13:52) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to MIA 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.51 EP
60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model