4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Aaron Glenn
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

CLE
30.1%
NYJ
69.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.182 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Dillon Gabriel (CLE): -0.236 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ defense: +0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 18
–
NYJ 23
Projected margin: NYJ by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

CLE

Cornelius Lucas T Out Back
Isaiah Bond WR Out Foot
Carson Schwesinger LB Questionable Ankle
Harold Fannin Jr. TE Questionable Hamstring

NYJ

Khalil Herbert RB Questionable Groin
Xavier Newman-Johnson G Questionable Ankle
Garrett Wilson WR Questionable Knee
Francisco Mauigoa LB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 20
–
NYJ 27

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:40 TD CLE (6:40) 8-D.Gabriel pass short right to 85-D.Njoku for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 06:34 TD NYJ 25-A.Szmyt kicks 64 yards from CLE 35 to NYJ 1. 34-K.Nwangwu for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – NYJ 6
  • Q1 06:01 TD NYJ (6:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to NYJ 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-28-T.Avery, Offensive Holding, declined. CLE 7 – NYJ 13
  • Q2 10:41 TD CLE (10:41) 8-D.Gabriel pass deep left to 3-J.Jeudy for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – NYJ 14
  • Q2 03:54 FG NYJ (3:54) 6-N.Folk 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. CLE 14 – NYJ 17
  • Q2 00:01 FG CLE (:01) 25-A.Szmyt 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 17 – NYJ 17
  • Q4 14:21 TD NYJ (14:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 20-B.Hall for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-G.Delpit]. CLE 17 – NYJ 23
  • Q4 06:17 FG NYJ (6:17) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. CLE 17 – NYJ 27
  • Q4 03:00 FG CLE (3:00) 25-A.Szmyt 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 20 – NYJ 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 18 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to NYJ 29, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 41 for 12 yards (86-B.Whiteheart; 42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:46) 14-A.McNamara punts 52 yards to CLE 5, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to NYJ 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-28-T.Avery, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:55) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to NYJ 14, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 22 for 8 yards (41-C.Edmonds; 86-B.Whiteheart).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:19) 14-A.McNamara punts 46 yards to CLE 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 98%

    (3:54) 6-N.Folk 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 83%

    (:01) 25-A.Szmyt 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:32) 14-A.McNamara punts 48 yards to CLE 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 18 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:05) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to NYJ 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-17-J.Baker.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (6:31) 14-A.McNamara punts 48 yards to CLE 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to NYJ 23, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 42 for 19 yards (41-C.Edmonds; 5-R.Jenkins).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 71%

    (10:21) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel sacked at NYJ 40 for -7 yards (9-W.McDonald).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (6:17) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (3:00) 25-A.Szmyt 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.