Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 17 – New York Jets 17

(3:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to NYJ 23, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 42 for 19 yards (41-C.Edmonds; 5-R.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.19 EP
65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 81, worth -4.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model