Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to NYJ 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-28-T.Avery, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.60 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model