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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 11

Cleveland Browns 17 – New York Jets 27

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 25-A.Szmyt 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.30 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model