Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 78

Cleveland Browns 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to NYJ 29, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 41 for 12 yards (86-B.Whiteheart; 42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 78, worth -4.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model