Value Picks — Week 14

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

WAS @ MIN

Model: WAS 71.2% Line: WAS 54.4% 16.8-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ DET Disagrees with the line

Model: DAL 52.9% Line: DET 60.2% 13.1-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ KC

Model: KC 71.7% Line: KC 63.1% 8.6-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ BAL

Model: BAL 60.5% Line: BAL 65.8% 5.3-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ LV

Model: DEN 68.4% Line: DEN 73.6% 5.2-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ JAX

Model: IND 52.5% Line: IND 57.3% 4.8-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ ARI

Model: LA 71.9% Line: LA 75.9% 4.0-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ BUF

Model: BUF 63.8% Line: BUF 67.2% 3.4-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ ATL

Model: SEA 67.0% Line: SEA 69.8% 2.8-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ GB

Model: GB 65.7% Line: GB 68.5% 2.8-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ NYJ

Model: MIA 54.6% Line: MIA 57.3% 2.7-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ CLE

Model: CLE 62.1% Line: CLE 63.1% 1.0-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ TB

Model: TB 70.3% Line: TB 71.1% 0.8-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ LAC

Model: PHI 53.8% Line: PHI 54.4% 0.6-pt gap vs. the line