Value Picks — Week 14

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

WAS @ MIN

Model: WAS 70.4% Line: WAS 54.4% 16.0-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ ATL

Model: SEA 58.9% Line: SEA 69.8% 10.9-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ DET Disagrees with the line

Model: DAL 50.1% Line: DET 60.2% 10.3-pt gap vs. the line

DEN @ LV

Model: DEN 65.3% Line: DEN 73.6% 8.3-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ NYJ Disagrees with the line

Model: NYJ 50.4% Line: MIA 57.3% 7.7-pt gap vs. the line

HOU @ KC

Model: KC 70.8% Line: KC 63.1% 7.7-pt gap vs. the line

LA @ ARI

Model: LA 69.6% Line: LA 75.9% 6.3-pt gap vs. the line

PHI @ LAC Disagrees with the line

Model: LAC 51.8% Line: PHI 54.4% 6.2-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ CLE

Model: CLE 66.1% Line: CLE 63.1% 3.0-pt gap vs. the line

CIN @ BUF

Model: BUF 64.4% Line: BUF 67.2% 2.8-pt gap vs. the line

PIT @ BAL

Model: BAL 63.4% Line: BAL 65.8% 2.4-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ TB

Model: TB 68.9% Line: TB 71.1% 2.2-pt gap vs. the line

CHI @ GB

Model: GB 66.4% Line: GB 68.5% 2.1-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ JAX

Model: IND 59.1% Line: IND 57.3% 1.8-pt gap vs. the line