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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 16:25 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -9.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

LA
69.6%
ARI
30.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Jacoby Brissett (ARI) -0.051 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.212 EPA/dropback
  • ARI defense: +0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA defense: -0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 28
–
ARI 20
Projected margin: LA by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

LA

Darious Williams CB Doubtful Tibia
Poona Ford DT Questionable Calf
Tutu Atwell WR Questionable Hamstring

ARI

Greg Dortch WR Out Chest
L.J. Collier DE Out Knee
Emari Demercado RB Out Ankle
Christian Jones T Out Knee
Max Melton CB Out Heel
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Out Heel
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson S Out Ankle
Trey Benson RB Out Knee
Walter Nolen DT Out Knee
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Groin
Evan Brown G Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Xavier Weaver WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 45
–
ARI 17

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:10 TD ARI (12:10) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 14-M.Wilson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – ARI 6
  • Q1 07:43 FG LA (7:43) 92-H.Mevis 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – ARI 7
  • Q1 01:33 TD LA (1:33) 22-B.Corum up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – ARI 7
  • Q2 08:39 FG ARI (8:39) 38-C.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack. LA 10 – ARI 10
  • Q2 02:50 TD LA (2:50) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – ARI 10
  • Q2 00:18 TD LA (:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 12-P.Nacua for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – ARI 10
  • Q3 10:12 TD LA (10:12) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 84-C.Parkinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 30 – ARI 10
  • Q3 00:18 TD LA (:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 12-P.Nacua for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 37 – ARI 10
  • Q4 13:56 TD LA (13:56) 22-B.Corum right tackle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 44 – ARI 10
  • Q4 11:13 TD ARI (11:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-M.Wilson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 45 – ARI 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (7:43) 92-H.Mevis 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 12 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:08) 39-M.Haack punts 57 yards to LA 14, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-X.Smith to LA 26 for 12 yards (44-O.Pappoe).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 18 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 93%

    (8:39) 38-C.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:55) 39-M.Haack punts 57 yards to LA 8, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-49-P.Brown.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:21) 39-M.Haack punts 57 yards to LA 3, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-X.Smith to LA 16 for 13 yards (46-A.Brewer; 49-P.Brown).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 50%

    (4:23) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback. PENALTY on ARI-13-K.Clark, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 20.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:09) 39-M.Haack punts 52 yards to LA 39, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:15) 42-E.Evans punts 39 yards to ARI 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-48-O.Speights.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:09) 39-M.Haack punts 48 yards to LA 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at ARI 48 for 21 yards (47-C.Tindall).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (8:36) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (5:28) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 22-M.Carter (51-T.Reeder).