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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 91

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Los Angeles Rams 31

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 39-M.Haack punts 52 yards to LA 39, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.88 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 91, worth -5.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 48, worth -2.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model