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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 20

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 38-C.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.28 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 20, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model