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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 56

Los Angeles Rams 45 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.58 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP