Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Los Angeles Rams 31

(9:21) 39-M.Haack punts 57 yards to LA 3, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-X.Smith to LA 16 for 13 yards (46-A.Brewer; 49-P.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.39 EP
55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -3.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model