4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 79

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Los Angeles Rams 38

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 39-M.Haack punts 48 yards to LA 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at ARI 48 for 21 yards (47-C.Tindall).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.41 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 36, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model