4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 65

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 39-M.Haack punts 57 yards to LA 8, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-49-P.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.28 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 65, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 23, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model