Value Picks — Week 18

Every game this week, ranked by how far our model's win probability strays from what the closing Vegas line implies: the biggest gaps between what we think and what the market thinks. The market wins on average (see Track Record). This is a transparency tool, not a claim we're right.

How It Works →

BAL @ PIT Disagrees with the line

Model: PIT 57.2% Line: BAL 63.1% 20.3-pt gap vs. the line

LAC @ DEN

Model: DEN 66.6% Line: DEN 85.9% 19.3-pt gap vs. the line

SEA @ SF Disagrees with the line

Model: SF 61.2% Line: SEA 57.3% 18.5-pt gap vs. the line

GB @ MIN

Model: MIN 64.1% Line: MIN 82.3% 18.2-pt gap vs. the line

MIA @ NE

Model: NE 73.7% Line: NE 85.0% 11.3-pt gap vs. the line

ARI @ LA

Model: LA 77.2% Line: LA 85.9% 8.7-pt gap vs. the line

DET @ CHI

Model: CHI 51.7% Line: CHI 60.2% 8.5-pt gap vs. the line

NO @ ATL

Model: ATL 55.0% Line: ATL 63.1% 8.1-pt gap vs. the line

DAL @ NYG

Model: DAL 50.9% Line: DAL 58.8% 7.9-pt gap vs. the line

CLE @ CIN

Model: CIN 82.6% Line: CIN 75.9% 6.7-pt gap vs. the line

IND @ HOU

Model: HOU 69.4% Line: HOU 75.9% 6.5-pt gap vs. the line

KC @ LV

Model: KC 54.2% Line: KC 60.2% 6.0-pt gap vs. the line

NYJ @ BUF

Model: BUF 87.7% Line: BUF 82.3% 5.4-pt gap vs. the line

WAS @ PHI

Model: PHI 63.4% Line: PHI 58.8% 4.6-pt gap vs. the line

TEN @ JAX

Model: JAX 79.0% Line: JAX 82.3% 3.3-pt gap vs. the line

CAR @ TB

Model: TB 58.4% Line: TB 58.8% 0.4-pt gap vs. the line