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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Chicago Bears

HC Ben Johnson
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 16:25 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

DET
46.3%
CHI
53.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CHI offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Jared Goff (DET): +0.126 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET on 3 more days rest than CHI

Predicted Final Score

DET 24
–
CHI 25
Projected margin: CHI by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

DET

Alex Anzalone LB Out Concussion
Trystan Colon G Out Wrist
Alim McNeill DT Out Abdomen
Penei Sewell T Out Ankle
Giovanni Manu T Out Knee
Thomas Harper S Out Concussion
Taylor Decker T Questionable Shoulder
Kayode Awosika G Questionable Illness
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Questionable Knee
Christian Mahogany G Questionable Illness

CHI

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka DE Out Concussion
Nick McCloud CB Questionable Illness
Jaquan Brisker S Questionable Illness
Rome Odunze WR Questionable Foot
Ozzy Trapilo T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 19
–
CHI 16

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:40 FG DET (8:40) 39-J.Bates 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 3 – CHI 0
  • Q2 11:32 FG DET (11:32) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 6 – CHI 0
  • Q2 04:46 TD DET (4:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 0-J.Gibbs for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 12 – CHI 0
  • Q3 02:15 FG DET (2:15) 39-J.Bates 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 16 – CHI 0
  • Q4 14:20 TD CHI (14:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 20-J.Walker for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – CHI 6
  • Q4 05:28 TD CHI (5:28) 74-J.McFadden reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – CHI 14
  • Q4 00:02 FG DET (:02) 39-J.Bates 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 19 – CHI 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%

    (8:40) 39-J.Bates 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 49%

    (3:49) 19-T.Taylor punts 32 yards to DET 12, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond to DET 22 for 10 yards (81-D.Smythe).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (11:32) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:59) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to DET 15, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond to DET 24 for 9 yards (46-S.Daly; 33-J.Jones).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 36%

    (2:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to DET 38 for 11 yards (13-J.Mills).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 80%

    (:34) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to DET 23 for 7 yards (55-D.Barnes). FUMBLES (55-D.Barnes), RECOVERED by DET-99-T.Wheat at DET 23. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Loveland (55-D.Barnes).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:45) 19-T.Taylor punts 46 yards to DET 20, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 19 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:41) 3-J.Fox punts 59 yards to CHI 16, Center-49-H.Hatten. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 31 for 15 yards (49-H.Hatten; 15-G.Stuard).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (2:15) 39-J.Bates 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 43%

    (11:27) 3-J.Fox punts 34 yards to CHI 12, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:55) 19-T.Taylor punts 46 yards to DET 23, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 37 for 14 yards (21-T.Homer).