Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 69

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 6

(9:59) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to DET 15, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond to DET 24 for 9 yards (46-S.Daly; 33-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.40 EP
62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 69, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model