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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 12

Detroit Lions 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.12 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 12, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.11 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model