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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 30

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(:34) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to DET 23 for 7 yards (55-D.Barnes). FUMBLES (55-D.Barnes), RECOVERED by DET-99-T.Wheat at DET 23. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Loveland (55-D.Barnes).

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.48 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model