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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 16

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 39-J.Bates 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.01 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 16, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.11 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP