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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 69

Chicago Bears 16 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 19-T.Taylor punts 46 yards to DET 23, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 37 for 14 yards (21-T.Homer).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.12 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 69, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 27, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model