4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 46

Detroit Lions 16 – Chicago Bears 8

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 3-J.Fox punts 34 yards to CHI 12, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.89 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP