Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 19 at the 75

Detroit Lions 13 – Chicago Bears 0

(10:41) 3-J.Fox punts 59 yards to CHI 16, Center-49-H.Hatten. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 31 for 15 yards (49-H.Hatten; 15-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.24 EP
72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model