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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 6

Detroit Lions 13 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 39-J.Bates 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.27 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 6, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP