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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 44

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 19-T.Taylor punts 32 yards to DET 12, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond to DET 22 for 10 yards (81-D.Smythe).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.89 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -1.71 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model