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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 49

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(2:20) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to DET 38 for 11 yards (13-J.Mills).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.70 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model