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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 66

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 19-T.Taylor punts 46 yards to DET 20, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.31 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model