4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
BAL Away

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2026-01-04 · 20:20 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 🌨 Snow Spread -4.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

BAL
45.4%
PIT
54.6%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 21
–
PIT 22
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

BAL

Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Illness
Taven Bryan DT Questionable Knee
Rashod Bateman WR Questionable Illness

PIT

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 24
–
PIT 26

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:01 TD BAL (11:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 81-D.Walker for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – PIT 0
  • Q2 13:37 FG BAL (13:37) 33-T.Loop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 10 – PIT 0
  • Q2 08:56 FG PIT (8:56) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. BAL 10 – PIT 3
  • Q3 08:24 TD PIT (8:24) 97-Ca.Heyward reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BAL-91-B.Okoye, Defensive Offside, declined. BAL 10 – PIT 9
  • Q3 04:31 FG PIT (4:31) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. BAL 10 – PIT 13
  • Q4 08:52 TD BAL (8:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – PIT 13
  • Q4 03:53 TD PIT (3:53) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 14-K.Gainwell right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: BAL-2-N.Wiggins has returned to the game. BAL 17 – PIT 19
  • Q4 02:30 TD BAL (2:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-24-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined. BAL 23 – PIT 20
  • Q4 01:00 TD PIT (1:00) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 19-C.Austin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 24 – PIT 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 65%

    (11:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 81-D.Walker for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 11 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 42%

    (9:31) 3-C.Waitman punts 33 yards to BAL 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 19 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:11) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to PIT 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-C.Austin to PIT 25 for 9 yards (32-T.Simpson).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:47) 97-Ca.Heyward reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to PIT 45 for no gain (97-B.Urban; 0-R.Smith).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 91%

    (13:37) 33-T.Loop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 62%

    (8:56) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:22) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to PIT 15, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-C.Austin to PIT 17 for 2 yards (49-J.Higgins; 24-M.Starks).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 15 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:47) 3-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to BAL 35, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 55%

    (3:19) 11-J.Stout punts 33 yards to PIT 9, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (9:04) 97-Ca.Heyward reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to BAL 1 for 1 yard (98-T.Jones; 49-J.Higgins).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (4:31) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:15) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-35-J.Hummel.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:02) 3-C.Waitman punts 33 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-33-J.Sawyer.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 34%

    (:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 80-I.Likely to PIT 24 for 26 yards (5-J.Ramsey) [90-T.Watt].