4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 38

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 81-D.Walker for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.56 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model