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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 2

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 97-Ca.Heyward reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward up the middle to BAL 1 for 1 yard (98-T.Jones; 49-J.Higgins).

The Three Options

GO +4.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.50 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 2, worth +0.60 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model