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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 22

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 33-T.Loop 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.70 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model