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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-35-J.Hummel.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.27 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model