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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 69

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to PIT 15, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-C.Austin to PIT 17 for 2 yards (49-J.Higgins; 24-M.Starks).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.16 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model