4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 7

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +3.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.84 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 7, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP