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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 3-C.Waitman punts 33 yards to BAL 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.85 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model