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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 19 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to PIT 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-C.Austin to PIT 25 for 9 yards (32-T.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.52 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model