Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 62

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Baltimore Ravens 10

(11:02) 3-C.Waitman punts 33 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-33-J.Sawyer.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.59 EP
68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model